2025 Breeders’ Cup Preview with Alex Brown Racing

🔍 Overview

Dates: October 31 & November 1, 2025 US Racing+1
Location: Del Mar, California — dirt and turf tracks, major racecourse quirks. Handicappers always note Del Mar’s dirt tends to favor speed + ability to handle the turns.
Big purses, full fields, international raiders — plenty of value and risk. US Racing+2Horse Racing Guide+2

🏇 Key Contenders in the Classic

Here are some horses already standing out for the Classic, along with owners, connections, and handicapping angles.

Horse	Owner / Connections	Strengths & Recent Form	Handicapping Notes / Risk Factors
City of Troy	Owned by partners including Godolphin & others; prominent trainer connections. US Racing+1	Among the favorites — consistent high-level form. Likely to have tactical speed and proven distance under his belt.	A solid post position and clean trip will matter. If he gets boxed in or has to expend too much early speed, he could fade.
Forever Young (JPN)	Japanese owner/breeder operations; international horse. US Racing+1	Has been delivering strong performances overseas and has adaptability. Can stretch out and hit a strong finish.	Travel, adapting to Del Mar dirt, break from gate — all factors. Dirt form may be a weaker point if most career has been turf or different surfaces.
Fierceness	Owner Mike Repole, Trainer Todd Pletcher. Big name connections. Wikipedia+1	Big-race experience; has won big Grade 1s and shown ability to handle pressure, field sizes. Excellent trainer knew how to peak horses for championship events.	Might be vulnerable if the pace is extremely fast up front, or if ground underfoot is tricky. Also, betting odds may not reflect some weaknesses — could be overbet.
Tapit Trice, Sierra Leone, Highland Falls	Mix of established and emerging owner/trainer combinations. US Racing+1	Each offers angles: tap into speed, or closing kick, pedigree suited for the distance, etc. Some might be underdogs that can punch above odds.	Odds suggest long shots, so value is possible but risk is high. May need clean trips and favorable pace setups.

📉 Betting Angles & Handicapping Keys

To succeed betting the Classic (and the other big races), these are the factors I think are crucial:

Post Position & Early Speed
Many Classic winners at Del Mar have had either inside to mid-gate posts or enough early speed to secure a favorable position. Horses that break poorly or get stuck wide on turns often lose much of their chance.
Dirt Form + Adaptability
Horses coming from turf or international dirt but without enough US dirt form should be scrutinized. How they’ve handled moisture, deep track, or sloppy/dull dirt matters.
Trainer & Owner Patterns
Big owners and trainers who run multiple horses — pay attention to those who typically peak late, or have campaigned heavy through the fall. Also, international stables that understand travel logistics have less risk of shipping fatigue.
Pace Dynamics
If the front-runners are all speed types, they may tire late. Closers or mid-pack horses that can avoid being too far back may benefit. Watch the “Win & You’re In” prep races for pace clues.
Value in Longshots / Overlay Potential
Many Breeders’ Cup Classics have shocking or surprise performances. Some horses priced 20-1, 30-1 and more could offer more return if conditions favor them. But only pick them when you believe in their form, not just hope.

🧮 Early Odds Snapshot & What They Suggest

From USRacing and other early books:

City of Troy is among the shorter odds, implying bettors respect his credentials. US Racing
Forever Young (JPN) is also well supported but likely as a second-tier favorite. US Racing
Others like Mixto, Derma Sotogake (JPN), Highland Falls are priced longer, offering potential value if they deliver under peak. US Racing

✅ Who to Watch / Value Plays

A contender who may be undervalued is one of the international shippers who has shown recent dirt competence. If they’ve trained well in the US or shown adaptability, there’s potential.
Horses that have run in similar distance and pace profiles (e.g. stretch runs at Del Mar, or prep races with similar setups) may overperform in Classic.
Keep an eye on Fierceness — even if not the front-runner early, has the pedigree and connections to deliver a strong finish, possibly upsetting the favorites.

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Alex Brown (bio) is currently based in Gunwalloe, Cornwall. Currently working for Emeritus.org as a Course Leader/Learning Facilitator, and Clear Admit as a Community Manager. Seeking project-based consulting or teaching assignments in the marketing and digital media space. Please contact alexbr4cornwall@gmail.com

My latest works:

April 2025: Creating Custom GPTs

September 2024: Hierarchy of Trust, a Framework

July 2024: Search era to Knowledge era, and its Implications for Marketers

October 2023: Weaponizing the Internet: How Disinformation is eroding democracies.

Prior Stuff:

Missionville is available on Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.ca, and Booktopia (au), paperback and kindle. Missionville is also available at Barnes & Noble. It’s a story about greed, desperation and humanity, based at a low-level racetrack in Pennsylvania.

Excerpt: Missionville: Chapter 4

Missionville Coverage:

2018 Independent Publisher Book Awards Regional and Ebook

Money Laundering in Horse Racing News?

DownTheStretch: A Kentucky Derby contestant (short story)

Five Semi-Finalists Announced For 2017 Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award

This Is Horse Racing: An Excerpt from Missionville

Book Review: Missionville by Alex Brown

Opinion: For Many Racetracks, ‘Horse-Slaughter Pipeline’ Is Necessary, But There Are Ways To Fight It

Why the ‘horse-slaughter pipeline’ is vital for so many racetracks – and what can be done to fight it

Horse books for the holidays: Missionville book review

Still Time to Help the Horses and Burros for Christmas

Down The Stretch: Book Review: Missionville by Alex Brown

Years spent at Woodbine served as critical education for Alex Brown’s horse racing novel

Alex Brown, author of Missionville – Interview

Missionville by Alex Brown

Former Cecil Whig contributor publishes novel

Profile On: Alex Brown, former Exercise Rider

Prior Book: Becoming a Clear Admit: The Definitive Guide to MBA Admissions is now available at Clear Admit and Amazon. You can explore the book through a series of book excerpts and author commentaries.

Recent blog posts:

Missionville to launch in September

Missionville: Cover Art For New Book

Second Auction: A Short Story

Horse Racing: A Short Story

Pavement Artist, London, 1936

Merther Uny, Cornwall: Stone Cross

Recent Projects

YouTube Video Project: Horses: Sports, Culture, and Slaughter, in America launched.

Not too current, but I wrote a book: Greatness and Goodness: Barbaro and His Legacy. (published 2011)

Story

Alex Brown Racing came to prominence as a site that provided updates on 2006 Derby winner Barbaro, during his time at the New Bolton Center. That episode evolved into an online community that supports horse welfare issues (discussion board).

Alex Brown also teaches, writes, advocates for horses, speaks, and undertakes consulting work.